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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket moves could be self-defeating on rate cut expectations, ECB's Knot saysKlaas Knot, head of the Dutch central bank, discusses his outlook for monetary policy and interest rates, and why markets are "getting ahead of themselves."
Locations: Dutch
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note edged higher to 4.0694%. The 2-year Treasury yield rose by around 5 basis points to trade at 4.278%. Treasury yields were higher early Wednesday, with the 10-year yield holding above 4%, as investors focused on fresh data and commentary from Federal Reserve members. On Tuesday, yields jumped after comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who suggested that while the central bank will likely cut rates this year, it may take its time. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, more European Central Bank members indicated that markets were getting ahead of themselves on rate cut projections.
Persons: FactSet, Christopher Waller, Klaas Knot, Jeff Cox, Pia Singh Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Investors, Economic, Central Bank, CNBC Wednesday Locations: Davos, Dutch
Markets are "getting ahead of themselves" with rate cut expectations, the president of the Dutch central bank, Klaas Knot, told CNBC Wednesday. But a lot needs to go well for that to happen," European Central Bank member Knot said, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos. "Underlying that projection is an interest rate path, assumed interest rate path, that contains significantly less easing than is currently embedded in market pricing. ECB officials have largely pushed back on market expectations for interest rate cuts starting as soon as the spring. Austrian central bank head Robert Holzmann, an ECB arch-hawk, told CNBC on Monday that there were threats to the inflationary picture that could mean rates do not move lower at all this year.
Persons: Klaas Knot, Knot, Robert Holzmann Organizations: CNBC, Central Bank, Economic, ECB Locations: Dutch, Davos, Austrian
Global watchdog FSB to tackle funds' liquidity mismatch - Knot
  + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Financial Stability Board (FSB) Chair Klaas Knot arrives for the G20 Leaders' Summit in Bali, Indonesia, November 15, 2022. Mast Irham/Pool via REUTERS Acquire Licensing RightsFRANKFURT, Nov 16 (Reuters) - The Financial Stability Board, a global risk watchdog, plans to issue new liquidity recommendations for some investments funds after bouts of stress in recent years risked spreading over to the broader financial sector, the head of the FSB said on Thursday. "Looking ahead, we will soon issue policy recommendations to address liquidity mismatches in open ended funds," Klaas Knot, the head of the FSB and the governor of the Dutch central bank said in a speech on Thursday. Open-ended investment funds tend to sit on long term assets but their investors often have the option for short-term redemptions, creating a liquidity mismatch in periods of high stress. FSB recommendations are not binding but serve as vital guidelines for local regulators and supervisors setting ground rules.
Persons: Klaas Knot, Mast, Klaas, Balazs Koranyi, Francesco Canepa Organizations: REUTERS Acquire, Rights, Thomson Locations: Bali , Indonesia, Dutch
Morning Bid: Fed's data-driven approach set for inflation test
  + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., June 29, 2023. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer prices report is expected to show inflation pressures were abating in September, if only marginally. Headline CPI is seen rising 0.3% on the month, down from 0.6% in August, which would take the annual rate to 3.6%. Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, is expected to have also risen 0.3% in September. The threat of higher energy prices following the outbreak of a war between Israel and Palestinian militants is all too real, even if the immediate market reaction has been relatively muted.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Samuel Indyk, Klaas, Mark Potter Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Wednesday, Labor Statistics, CPI, U.S, Chevron, European Central, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Delta Air Lines, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Europe
Klaas Knot, chair of the Financial Stability Board, arrives for the G20 leaders' summit in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, November 15, 2022. "Why did we not see these pockets of hidden leverage? That, I think, is still the main target of our work in the NBFI space going forward," Knot said. "In general the massive change in the interest rate environment, so far so good, there has not been any systemic rippling of negative effects into the financial sector," Knot told the Institute of International Finance annual meeting. Meanwhile, AI could have tangible benefits and present some risks to the financial system, he said.
Persons: Klaas, Willy Kurniawan, Klaas Knot, Huw Jones, Alex Richardson, Alexander Smith, Jane Merriman Organizations: Board, REUTERS, UBS Group, Silicon Valley Bank, UBS, Swiss, Credit Suisse, European Central Bank, policymaker, Institute of International Finance, Bank of England, Authority, ECB, Thomson Locations: Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, Silicon, Dutch
Four thousand U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. U.S. Treasury yields continued to slide, pinning the dollar close to two-week lows as markets digest recent comments from policymakers that the Fed may not need to tighten monetary policy further. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped ten basis points, extending declines from Tuesday after a sharp sell-off in September left bonds cheap. On Tuesday, Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said the central bank did not need to raise borrowing costs any further, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said it was "possible" that further hikes might not be needed. The European Central Bank has made "important progress" in getting inflation back down to target but there is still a long road ahead and a further rate hike cannot be ruled out, Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot said on Wednesday.
Persons: Rick Wilking, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Sterling, Klaas Knot, Iain Withers, Rae Wee, John Stonestreet, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Treasury, Hamas, ING, Atlanta Fed Bank, Minneapolis, Bank's, ECB, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, Israel, Palestinian, U.S, London, Singapore
ECB President Christine Lagarde has said the latest rate decision will be made based on available data, a switch from the last nine meetings when rate hikes were signaled ahead of time. But Valli added that it was “a very close call.”Market indicators of future rate moves show many are leaning against an ECB rate hike Thursday. They are betting that the U.S. Federal Reserve might manage a “soft landing” by finishing its rate hikes without pushing the economy into a downturn. Economists and investors generally expect the Fed to skip a rate hike at its meeting next week, but it could increase again in November. The flip side is that rate hikes can hurt economic growth if they're overdone.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Marco Valli, Valli, Klaas Knot Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Federal Reserve, UniCredit Bank, Services, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Bank of Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Milan, France, Spain, Italy, Europe's, Europe, China, U.S, Central, Ukraine, Bank of England
But speaking on Wednesday, the last day before the ECB's self-imposed quiet period, the Dutch, French, German and Slovak central bank chiefs all said the Governing Council's decision was still open. France's Francois Villeroy de Galhau hinted that a fresh rate hike could still come at a later date and argued that the slowdown is not a recession and that the ECB needed to persevere in its fight with inflation. Slovakia's Peter Kazimir, an outspoken policy hawk, was more explicit, arguing that another hike was still needed to tame inflation. He said the ECB could delay a rate rise to one of its autumn meetings or pull the trigger next week. "It would be wrong to bet on a rapid decrease in interest rates after the peak," Nagel told German business daily Handelsblatt.
Persons: Nagel, France's Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Peter Kazimir, Kazimir, Klaas Knot, Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, " Nagel, Robert Holzmann, Mario Centeno, Akanksha Khushi, Catherine Evans Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, Bloomberg, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, PARIS, Slovak
ECB core obsession raises risk of policy mistake
  + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Headline inflation in the euro zone has halved in the past nine months and was 5.3% in July. Granted, both headline and core inflation are currently above the ECB’s 2% target. In fact, core tends to follow headline inflation because its narrower composition makes it stickier. That’s because, as the chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said recently, headline inflation is “really what the public experiences”. ECB President Christine Lagarde has pledged to be “data-dependent”.
Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Martin Heidegger, that’s, Joachim Nagel, Germany’s Bundesbank, Klaas Knot, Lucrezia Reichlin, Michele Lenza, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Klaas, Neil Unmack, Oliver Taslic, Streisand Neto Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Reuters, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Financial Times, U.S . Federal, Eurostat, Central, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, German, Ukraine
Take Five: School's (not) out for summer
  + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
LONDON, July 21 (Reuters) - The peak holiday season is gearing up, but school's not quite out for summer in financial markets. Also in focus are earnings from some of the massive tech and growth stocks that have led markets higher this year. Reuters Graphics2/ SUMMER READINGBefore they go on their summer break, ECB policymakers have a well-flagged rate hike to deliver. Rate-setters' summer reading list just got longer. Second-quarter earnings are expected to decrease 9.2% from a year earlier, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv, with aggregate earnings likely to be weighed down by poor performance from energy companies.
Persons: school's, Ira Iosebashvili, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Alun John, Dhara, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda's, Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, Ueda, Stocks, it's, Dhara Ranasinghe, Muralikumar Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, Reserve, Microsoft, Reuters, ECB, Bank of Japan, Barclays, People's Party, Socialist Workers ' Party, Thomson Locations: Spanish, Ira, New York, Tokyo, London, Europe, SPAIN, Spain
Headline British consumer price inflation fell to 7.9% year-on-year in June, against expectations for 8.2%, in the latest downside surprise for a major economy after more than 18 months of central banks cranking interest rates higher. The BoE now had "the green light" for a 25 basis point (bps) rate rise next month, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief UK economist Samuel Tombs said, after markets had previously priced a further 50 bps hike. "Profit taking in sterling should not be a surprise," added Kenneth Broux, head of FX and rates corporate research at Societe Generale in London. The 10-year yield, a benchmark for debt costs in the Euro-zone, fell 5 bps to 2.35% . Futures trading indicated Wall Street's S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 share indices would open steady later in the day.
Persons: Sterling, BoE, Samuel Tombs, Kenneth Broux, Germany's, Klaas, Chris Weston, Sam Holmes, Bernadette Baum Organizations: LONDON, Headline, Sterling, . Federal, Bank of England, Macroeconomics, Societe Generale, European Central Bank, ECB, Pepperstone, Nasdaq, Bank of, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, London ., disinflation, Europe, Melbourne
Asia stocks split as US-China outlooks diverge
  + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Overnight the S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 0.7% to hit a three-month high, with results propelling bank shares. Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Bank of America (BAC.N) and Bank of New York Mellon (BK.N) shares rose sharply on strong results and an upbeat outlook overnight. Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares rose 4% - adding $100 billion in market value - after announcing charges for artificial intelligence features in its office software. British inflation data due at 0600 GMT is the next major calendar item and traders are expecting a fall to a still-uncomfortable 8.2% annual pace. "While annual headline inflation fell sharply, which is helpful for inflation expectations, the details suggest persistence in non-tradables inflation."
Persons: Seng, SYDNEY, Dovish, Tapas Strickland, Morgan Stanley, Klaas Knot, Brian Daingerfield, Treasuries, Brent, Lincoln Organizations: Companies, Microsoft, U.S, European Central Bank, New Zealand, Japan's Nikkei, Headline U.S, National Australia Bank, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, NatWest Markets, Bank of, Fed, ECB, ANZ, Thomson Locations: China, Japan, Australia, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, South Korea, Sydney, Atlanta, U.S, Europe, New York, New Zealand, Bank of England
[1/2] A New Zealand Dollar note is seen in this picture illustration June 2, 2017. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar rebounded from a 15-month low hit in the previous session, with its index steadying at 99.943 in early Asia trade. Sterling <GBP=D3> bought $1.3035, ahead of UK inflation data due later on Wednesday. "The stickiness of UK inflation measures has contrasted notably with price measures in both the euro zone and the U.S. which have been moving lower," said Rabobank's head of FX strategy Jane Foley. "While inflation is 'lower', it is not 'low' by any stretch of the imagination.
Persons: Thomas White, Tina Teng, Klaas, Jane Foley, Satish Ranchhod, Kazuo Ueda, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, New Zealand, U.S ., U.S, CMC Markets, Reuters, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Sterling, Bank of, Reserve Bank of New, Westpac, Australian, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S, Bank of England, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
English, American and New Zealand currency around a paper map of the world. The dollar held just above an over one-year low on Wednesday as traders assessed the U.S. rate outlook, while the New Zealand dollar spiked briefly after a higher-than-expected inflation reading pushed back prospects of policy easing further out. Sterling bought $1.3035, ahead of U.K. inflation data due later on Wednesday. "The stickiness of U.K. inflation measures has contrasted notably with price measures in both the euro zone and the U.S. which have been moving lower," said Rabobank's head of FX strategy Jane Foley. "While inflation is 'lower', it is not 'low' by any stretch of the imagination.
Persons: Tina Teng, Klaas, Sterling, Jane Foley, Satish Ranchhod, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: New Zealand, U.S ., U.S, CMC Markets, Reuters, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of, Reserve Bank of New, Westpac, Australian, Bank of Japan Locations: Zealand, Asia, U.S, Bank of England, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Oil prices dip on profit-taking despite tighter U.S. supplies
  + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A very large oil tanker docked at the 300,000-ton crude oil terminal at Yantai Port in Yantai, Shandong province, China, June 16, 2023. Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday, as investors took profits following earlier gains on tighter U.S. crude supplies and China's pledge to reinvigorate its economic growth. Prices pared gains late in the session after both contracts had risen by over $1 a barrel. Market participants took advantage of the higher prices and took profits, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. ... Any improvement in the inflation data also means an improvement in oil demand," said Naeem Aslam of Zaye Capital Markets.
Persons: Phil Flynn, Flynn, We're, Klaas, Naeem Aslam Organizations: U.S, West Texas, Price Futures, Energy, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Traders, Zaye, Markets Locations: Yantai, Shandong province, China, Russia
NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose from a 15-month low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday after core retail sales saw strong gains in June, as investors wait on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week. Headline U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in June, with a 0.2% increase during the month. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.6% in June. Data for May was revised slightly up to show core retail sales increasing 0.3% instead of the previously reported 0.2%. The dollar rose 0.10% against the Japanese yen to 138.83, after dropping to 137.245 on Friday, the lowest since May 17.
Persons: , Bipan Rai, ” Rai, Klaas Knot, Samuel Indyk, Sharon Singleton, William Maclean Organizations: YORK, U.S, Headline U.S, CIBC Capital Markets, Bank of America, Norwegian krone, European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Thomson Locations: North American, Toronto, U.S, Britain, Japan, Norwegian, London
For the record, exports posted a bigger-than-expected drop of 7.5% year-on-year, sending the trade surplus to a 13-month low, while imports remained mired in negative territory. Indeed, RBA Governor Philip Lowe was still explaining Tuesday's policy decision in a speech to bankers after the central bank wrong-footed economists who predicted there would be a rate pause for a second straight month. Expectations of a follow-up hike in July cushioned the Aussie from the weak Chinese trade numbers and Australia's own below-forecast first-quarter gross domestic product data. Stock markets in Asia were mixed, as were U.S. equity futures, following a slightly firmer finish on Wall Street. Light positioning could well persist into next week's lineup of major central bank meetings, as the earnings season draws to a close.
Persons: Sonali Desai China's, Philip Lowe, Fabio Panetta, Edouard Fernandez, Bollo, Luis de Guindos, Klaas, Sonali Desai, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Reuters, Bank, Bank of Canada, Stock, U.S, Thomson Locations: Beijing, Europe, Asia, Brussels
"Because inflation was high for a long period, underlying inflationary pressures have built up," Knot said in a speech. "It is likely that price pressures in these areas will prove more difficult to bring down." "It is reassuring to see the first signs of recent monetary policy actually being transmitted to the real economy," Knot, an outspoken policy hawk, said. "These are only the first, concrete steps in the transmission of our monetary policy tightening," Knot said. The ECB also needed to mind stability considerations because the financial system needed to adjust to higher rates, Knot added.
Persons: Klaas Knot, Christine Lagarde, Balazs Koranyi, Andrew Heavens Organizations: ECB, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Dutch
Euro zone consumers more hopeful on inflation
  + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
[1/2] A shopper pays with a five Euro bank note to buy eggs at a local market in Nice, France, April 26, 2023. REUTERS/Eric GaillardFRANKFURT, June 6 (Reuters) - Euro zone consumers lowered their inflation expectations, a fresh European Central Bank survey showed on Tuesday, a relief for policymakers after an unexpected surge a month earlier, even if underlying price growth is still likely to be stubborn. Still, Knot warned that it could still take some time before inflation, at 6.1% in May, is fully under control. "Because inflation was high for a long period, underlying inflationary pressures have built up," Knot said in a speech. The ECB's consumer expectations survey also included a new nugget that could support arguments for more cautious policy tightening.
Persons: Eric Gaillard FRANKFURT, Klaas, Joachim Nagel, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Balazs Koranyi, Bernadette Baum, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Nice, France
European banking stocks plunged after the collapse of Silicon Valley (SVB) bank in the U.S. in March, creating turmoil that lead to the forced takeover of ailing Credit Suisse by UBS in Switzerland. Knot, who also heads the Dutch central bank, said the FSB has begun evaluating lessons from how the U.S. and Swiss authorities had responded to these events. "Why did FINMA, the Swiss supervisor, use a market and not a resolution solution to enable this sale? After all, we have come a long way in improving crisis preparedness in the banking sector," Knot told an event held by the European Banking Federation. Social media is also having an impact on the financial sector with one tweet able to cause a bank run to create liquidity problems, Knot said.
Persons: Klaas Knot, SVB, Huw Jones, Jason Neely, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Suisse, UBS, Basel III, European Banking Federation, Regulators, Thomson Locations: Silicon, U.S, Switzerland, Basel, Swiss
Morning Bid: Hot, cold and skipping a beat
  + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Like a patient with a virus, incoming data appears to blow hot and cold at the same time. Private sector and full national snapshots of payroll growth for May are due later today and on Friday. But a renewed rise in U.S. staff vacancies in April showed the labor market tightening again if anything - even a Chicago manufacturing survey alarmed with a sharp contraction in factory activity last month. The central bank's "Beige Book" on economic conditions said on Wednesday that the labor market "continued to be strong" in May "with contacts reporting difficulty finding workers across a wide range of skill levels and industries." U.S. Treasury yields crept back up on Thursday after the debt ceiling vote overnight and despite the mixed economic picture.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Philip Jefferson, Larry Fink, Klaas Knot, Patrick Harker, President Biden, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, BlackRock, Treasury, U.S, San, Central Bank, Philadelphia Federal, Broadcom, Dollar, Hormel, Cooper Companies, Republicans, Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Chicago, Salesforce, San Francisco
Oil prices rise as US closes in on debt deal
  + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Oil prices ticked up on Friday as U.S. officials appeared close to striking a debt ceiling deal, and as the market weighed conflicting messages on supply from Russia and Saudi Arabia ahead of the next OPEC+ policy meeting. Russia was leaning towards leaving oil production volumes unchanged because Moscow is content with current prices and output, three sources with knowledge of current Russian thinking told Reuters. Bets on falling oil prices have risen. On the supply side, U.S. oil rigs fell five to 570 this week, according to a report from energy services firm Baker Hughes Co. In May, the oil count fell by 21 rigs, which was the biggest monthly drop since June 2020.
Persons: Brent, Alexander Novak, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, John Kilduff, Baker Hughes, Klaas Knot Organizations: . West Texas Intermediate, U.S, Biden, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister, Organization of Petroleum Exporting, OPEC, Again, AAA, Dutch Central Bank, European Central Bank Locations: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Vienna, Moscow, U.S, Europe
The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) rose 0.2% to 466.29 points by 0805 am GMT. The index was pressured last week when, unlike the Fed, the European Central Bank signalled more rate hikes were on the table. A slump in energy shares on weakness in crude prices also added to the declines. Energy (.SXEP) was the top sectoral gainer on Monday, up 0.8% as crude prices strengthened. Dutch Central Bank President Klaas Knot on Sunday said the ECB's rate hikes are starting to have an effect, but more will be needed to contain inflation.
ECB's Knot says rate hikes are working, more needed
  + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
AMSTERDAM, May 7 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank's interest rate hikes are starting to have an effect, but more will be needed to contain inflation, Dutch Central Bank President Klaas Knot said on Sunday. Knot, who is also on the ECB's governing council and is known as a hawk, said he had agreed with the ECB decision on Thursday to slow the speed of rate hikes to 25 basis points, or 0.25%But, speaking on Dutch television, he said he still could support the lifting of rates to 5% from the current 3.25%, or even higher - if inflation proves more persistent than he expects. "Our policy works with a certain delay, so the biggest effects of what we have done so far are still in the pipeline," Knot said in interview on the programme Buitenhof. Reporting by Toby SterlingOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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